Home पड़ताल स्टार पत्रकारों की यूपी में ‘मोदी विजय’ की भविष्यवाणी में छेद ही...

स्टार पत्रकारों की यूपी में ‘मोदी विजय’ की भविष्यवाणी में छेद ही छेद !

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चुनाव खत्म होने से पहले बड़े-बड़े सेक्युलर पत्रकार जैसे राजदीप सरदेसाई, प्रणव रॉय, संजीव श्रीवास्तव और न जाने कितने बड़े-छुटभइये बजरंगी पत्रकारों (शब्द साभार- प्रभाष जोशी) ने उत्तर प्रदेश में भाजपा की सरकार बनवा दी है। फिर भी एक सवाल तो लाजिमी है कि जब 11 मार्च को सचमुच चुनाव परिणाम आएगें तब क्या होगा?

पता नहीं कैसे इन तथाकथित बड़े व सवर्ण पत्रकारों को लगता है कि बीजेपी सरकार बना रही है ? क्या उन्हें सच्चाई दिखाई नहीं पड़ रही है जो हरेक न्यूट्रल पत्रकार या नागरिक को दिखाई दे रहा है? लेकिन दुखद यह है जिस तरह इन बजरंगियों ने अपनी आंख-कान को जातियता और स्वार्थ में बांध लिया है कि वो कुछ देखना ही नहीं चाह रहा है!

जब हम उनकी रिपोर्टिंग या विश्लेषण देखते हैं तो वे बताते हैं कि समाज यादव, ओबीसी, अति पिछड़े, गैर यादव, सवर्ण मतदाता आदि में बंट गया है। ‘यादव’ शब्द पर इतना जोर रहता है जिससे लगता है कि उत्तर प्रदेश समाज में एक मात्र विभाजन यादव और दूसरों के बीच है जबकि सारे सवर्ण- ब्राह्मण, राजपूत, कायस्थ और बनिया एक यूनिट है! जबकि हकीकत यह है कि कल्याण सिंह के पराभव के बाद कभी भी ठाकुर और ब्राह्मणों ने एक साथ बीजेपी को वोट नहीं किया है। दूसरी बात नोटबंदी के बाद बीजेपी ने उस बनिया को अपने से कोसों दूर कर दिया है जिसने आरएसएस से लेकर जनसंघ होते हुए भाजपा तक को अपने खून पसीने से सींचा था। बनियों को न सिर्फ अपने से दूर कर लिया है बल्कि उस पूरे समुदाय को चोर और भ्रष्ट्राचारी साबित कर दिया है। प्रधानसेवक जी का कालाधन पर किया गया ‘सर्जिकल स्टाइक’ उस समुदाय को नष्ट कर दिया है।

दूसरी बात, यह सही है कि 2 जनवरी को लखनऊ में हुई मोदी की रैली पिछले 25वर्षों में भाजपा की हुई सबसे बड़ी रैली थी, जिसमें लगभग 10 लाख लोग रहे होंगे- (बीजेपी वाले बताते हैं कि इसमें पचास लाख लोग शामिल हुए थे, जबकि हकीकत यह है कि उस मैदान की क्षमता ही सात लाख है)।लेकिन बजरंगी पत्रकार इस बात को भूल जाते हैं कि तब तक टिकट का बंटवारा नहीं हुआ था और हर विधानसभा क्षेत्र में मौजूद कम से कम छह से आठ गंभीर प्रत्याशियों से कहा गया था कि आपकी ताकत के आधार पर ही टिकट मिल सकता है। इसलिए सारे गंभीर प्रत्याशी ‘तन, मन और धन’ से उसमें हिस्सेदारी निभाया था। और जैसा कि जाहिर है- किसी एक व्यक्ति को ही टिकट मिलना था और कम से कम पांच से छह प्रत्याशियों को बागी बन जाना था और वही हुआ। जिन बाकी प्रत्याशियों को टिकट नहीं मिला वे भले ही चुनाव न लड़ रहे हों, लेकिन कम से कम हर विधानसभा क्षेत्र में पांच सौ वोट के हिसाब से दो हजार से तीन हजार वोट भाजपा का कटवा रहे हैं। ऐसा भी नहीं कि उनकी प्रतिबद्धता भाजपा से कम हुई है। उन ‘बेचारों’ की मजबूरी यह है कि जबतक वो ऑफिसियल भाजपा के उम्मीदवार को हराते नहीं हैं तबतक उनके विधायक बनने का सपना पूरा नहीं हो सकता है। सो मजबूरी यह है कि भाजपा के लिए तमाम सद्इच्छा के बावजूद वो भाजपा को हराकर मानेगें। यहीं बातें, बसपा और सपा पर लागू नहीं होती क्योंकि अखिलेश ने अधिक से अधिक 20 विधायकों के टिकट काटे हैं जबकि बसपा ने बहुत पहले अपने उम्मीदवार घोषित कर दिए थे। हां, बाद में उसने कुछ टिकट जरूर बदले।

तीसरी बात, मायावती और अखिलेश-राहुल ने एक जोरदार रणनीति बनाई। उनलोगों ने मात्र दो घंटे वाराणसी में बिताए जबकि प्रधानसेवकजी को अपने 18 वजीरों के साथ नगरी-नगरी नहीं बल्कि द्वारे-द्वारे चक्कर लगाने के लिए बाध्य कर दिया। अब इन बजरंगियों को कौन बताए कि जब भाजपा का एक मात्र ट्रंप कार्ड प्रधानसेवकजी ही थे तो उन्हें कई नगरियों में रैली को संबोधित करना था, न कि वाराणसी के हर चबूतरे और अखाड़ों पर माथा टेकना था!

खैर, विनाश काले विनाशे बुद्धि। और तब भी बजरंगी पत्रकार कह रहे हैं कि भाजपा चुनाव जीत रही है!
इसलिए मेरा मानना है कि भाजपा तीसरे नंबर की लड़ाई लड़ रही है। मेरे आकलन से बसपा सबसे बड़ी पार्टी के रूप में उभरेगी, दूसरे नंबर पर सपा होगी, तीसरे नंबर पर भाजपा होगी और चौथे नबंर पर कांग्रेस होगी। लेकिन कुछ अन्य जानकार लोगों का कहना है कि नहीं, भाजपा ऐतिहासिक रूप से चौथे नंबर की पार्टी होगी और सपा-कांग्रेस गठबंधन पूर्ण बहुमत से सरकार बनाएगी। अगर ऐसा होता है तो बसपा दूसरे नंबर की पार्टी होगी, कांग्रेस तीसरे नंबर की पार्टी होगी और भाजपा चौथे पायदान पर पहुंचेगी!

वैसे अंतिम फैसला जनता को करना है। लेकिन मेरी अपेक्षा है जो-जो बड़े ‘शूरवीर’ भाजपा के पक्ष में ध्वज उठाए हुए हैं, गलत साबित होने पर उन्हें उसी मंच पर माफी मांगनी चाहिए, जहां से उसने उद्घोषणा की थी। और स्वभाविक है-अगर मैं गलत साबित होता हूं, तो मैं भी माफी मांगूगा। बिना अगर-मगर के।

जितेंद्र कुमार

 

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