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बंद हों बचकाने एक्जिट पोल !

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 विष्णु राजगढ़िया
पांच राज्यों के विधानसभा चुनावों ने एक बार फिर एक्जिट पोल की निर्थकता साबित की है। नौ मार्च की शाम विभिन्न चैनलों द्वारा जारी एक्जिट पोल के नतीजों में भारी अंतर खुद इन्हें हास्यास्पद बता रहा था। बची कसर 11 मार्च को मतगणना के वक्त निकल गई जब किसी भी एक्जिट पोल के नतीजे वास्तविकता से कोसों दूर दिखे। कतिपय चैनलों द्वारा देश को गुमराह करके महज अपनी टीआरपी बढ़ाने और कुछ विज्ञापन के लोभ में देश को दो दिनों तक दिमागी दिवालिया बनाए रखना अपराध है। यह समय, संसाधन और ऊर्जा की राष्ट्रीय क्षति है। यह एक तरह से निर्वाचन प्रक्रिया और नई सरकार गठन में भी अनावश्यक हस्तक्षेप है क्योंकि एक्जिट पोल के परिणामों के आलोक में कई तरह की राजनीतिक चर्चा और प्रक्रियाएं प्रारंभ हो जाती हैं जो भावी सरकार के गठन पर प्रत्यक्ष या अप्रत्यक्ष असर डालती हैं। लिहाजा, अब जरूरी हो गया है कि निर्वाचन आयोग ऐसे एक्जिट पोल पर कड़ाई से रोक लगाए।
अगर वास्तव में एक्जिट पोल की कोई प्रासंगिकता दिखती हो, तो इसकी शोध-विधि, प्रक्रिया, व्यय, गुणवत्ता और पूर्ण पारदर्शिता का स्पष्ट नियम हो। नौ मार्च को एक्जिट पोल आए। भाजपा को इंडिया टीवी एवं सी-वोटर ने महज 155 सीटें दीं जबकि न्यूज 24-टुडेज चाणक्या ने 285 सीटें। इंडिया न्यूज-एमआरसी ने भाजपा को 185 सीटें दीं और एबीपी-सीएसडीएस ने 185 सीटें। वास्तविक परिणाम से किसी का संबंध नहीं दिखा। भाजपा को वास्तव में 325 सीटें मिलीं। यानी इंडिया टीवी एवं सी-वोटर द्वारा दी गईं सीटों के दोगुना से भी ज्यादा। इसी तरह, सपा-कांग्रेस को इंडिया टीवी एवं सी-वोटर ने 147 तक सीटें दी थीं।
एबीपी-सीएसडीएस ने भी 169 तक सीटें दे दीं। जबकि वास्तव में इन्हें सपा-कांग्रेस को मात्र 54 सीटों पर सफलता मिली। यानी इन चैनलों द्वारा दी गई सीटों को मात्र एक तिहाई। बसपा को इंडिया टीवी एवं सी-वोटर ने यूपी में 93 सीटें दे दीं। इंडिया न्यूज-एमआरसी ने भी 90 सीटें दी थी। लेकिन वास्तव में बसपा को मात्र 19 सीटें मिलीं। यानी एक्जिट पोल की महज 20 फीसदी सीटें। क्या मूर्खता है यह एक्जिट नतीजा। पंजाब का हाल भी इससे अलग नहीं। आम आदमी पार्टी को इंडिया न्यूज-एमआरसी ने 55 सीटें दी थीं। इंडिया टुडे-एक्सिस ने भी 51 तक सीटें दीं। न्यूज 24-टुडेज चाणक्या ने भी 55 सीटें दे दीं। जबकि वास्तव में आम आदमी पार्टी को 20 सीटों पर संतोष करना पड़ा। यानी एक्जिट पोल की अपेक्षा महज चालीस फीसदी सीट।
उत्तराखंड में इंडिया टीवी एवं सी-वोटर ने भाजपा को न्यूनतम 29 औ कांग्रेस को अधिकतम 35 सीटों पर विजय का आकलन किया था। जबकि वास्तव में भाजपा को 57 सीटों पर विजय मिली और कांग्रेस को महज 11 सीटों पर सिमटना पड़ा। गोवा में इंडिया टुडे-एक्सिस ने भाजपा को अधिकतम 22 सीटों का आकलन किया था। इंडिया टीवी एवं सी-वोटर ने भी 21 सीटें दी थीं। जबकि वास्तविक नतीजे में भाजपा को महज 13 सीटें मिलीं। ऐसे नतीजों से स्पष्ट है कि एक्जिट पोल के नाम पर सर्वेक्षण एजेंसियों एवं टीवी चैनलों द्वारा महज खानापूर्ति की जाती है। वास्तव में न तो समुचित टीम लगाई जाती है, न फील्ड में पर्याप्त एवं ठोस काम कराये जाते हैं और न ही पेशेवर विशेषज्ञों की पूर्णकालिक सेवा ली जाती है। ऐसे एक्जिट पोल देश और लोकतंत्र के लिए घातक हैं।
उदाहरण के लिए, एक्जिट पोल के नतीजों के बाद उत्तर प्रदेश में सपा-कांग्रेस और बसपा की मिली-जुली सरकार बनाने की संभावना पर चर्चा होने लगी। जबकि तीनों पार्टियों को वास्तव में मात्र 73 सीटें मिल जाईं जबकि सरकार बनाने के लिए 202 सीटों की जरूरत है। जाहिर है कि एक्जिट पोल के परिणामों के आधार पर किसी भी तरह की चर्चा या राजनीतिक-सामाजिक शक्तियों का पुनध्र्रुवीकरण या विघटन अनुचित है। अगर कोई पत्रकार या राजनीतिक विश्लेषक अपने क्षेत्र-भ्रमण या किसी आकलन के आधार पर किसी परिणाम का संकेत दे, तो इस पर ऐसी कोई व्यापक चर्चा नहीं होती। लेकिन एक्जिट पोल को एक वैज्ञानिक अनुसंधान का हिस्सा बताकर जिस तरह जारी किया जाता है, उसके कारण हम चाहें या न चाहें तब भी एक्जिट पोल के नतीजों पर व्यापक चर्चा होने लगती है। एक तरह का जन-उन्माद पैदा होने लगता है। जब दो दिनों के बाद वास्तविक नतीजे आने ही हैं, तो फिर समाज में ऐसी बेचैनी और अटकलबाजी का माहौल बनाना एक अपराध है।
इसलिए अब निर्वाचन आयोग को ऐसे अंदाजीफिकेशन वाले एक्जिट पोल पर कड़ाई से रोक लगानी चाहिए। अवैज्ञानिक सर्वेक्षण के नाम पर अधकचरे आंकड़े जारी करना कोई अभिव्यक्ति की स्वतंत्रता नहीं बल्कि नागरिकों को गुमराह करने का अपराध है। हां, अगर किसी वजह से एक्जिट पोल पर पूर्ण रोक संभव नहीं हो, तो इसके लिए स्पष्ट दिशानिर्देश जारी किए जाएं। इसमें संबंधित एजेंसी द्वारा एक्जिट पोल कराने से पहले उस प्रोजेक्ट संबंधी विवरण निर्वाचन आयोग के पास जमा किया जाना अनिवार्य हो। एक्जिट पोल के नतीजे जारी करने से पहले सर्वेक्षण की शोध-विधि, प्रक्रिया, व्यय, विशेषज्ञों एवं टीम सदस्यों के नामों की सूची संबंधी सभी विवरण पूर्ण पारदर्शिता के साथ सार्वजनिक किए जाएं। यह भी बताना अनिवार्य हो कि टीम के कौन-कौन सदस्य किस किस क्षेत्र में किस-किस तारीख को गए और किन बूथों पर कितने लोगों से आंकड़ा लिया।
अगर इन चीजों की जानकारी के साथ कोई एक्जिट पोल करने की बाध्यता हो, तो संभव है कि वर्तमान अराजकता और मनमानी पर रोक लगे। अंत में एक दिलचस्प बात और। अगर एक्जिट पोल में किसी पार्टी को मिलने वाली कुल सीटों की संख्या के बजाय कौन-कौन से सीट किस पार्टी को मिलेगी, इसका आकलन करना हो, तो ऐसे एक्जिट पोल और ज्यादा हास्यास्पद साबित हो सकते हैं। संभव है कि किसी एक्जिट पोल ने किसी पार्टी को 100 सीटें मिलने का अनुमान लगाया और उसे 100 सीटें मिल भी गई हों। लेकिन अगर सीटवाइज विजेता का नाम बताया गया हो, तो संभव है कि सभी 100 सीटों के परिणाम गलत निकलें।
(लेखक वरिष्ठ पत्रकार और सामाजिक कार्यकर्ता हैं। राँची में रहते हैं।)

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